Simple scenarios to run the model

Running the ABM by defining simple scenarios for the MMVS was the first step to test the model. The model is intended to support simulation of a system in which, over a period of 32 years, agents (small farm enterprises) can decide to convert from conventional to organic farming, remain the same, or revert back to conventional, depending on the configuration of transition support scenarios, the D_point (conversion decision point) value, and the economic performance of the farm enterprises. The model will also track how GHGs, net income and other variables might change over time under different scenarios.  Although this paper is applying values identified from the literature, users can input values based on regional empirical knowledge.

To test the model and its running performance we defined simple scenarios and used them to calibrate the model so as to reasonably represent the performance of small farm enterprises in Southern Ontario, and to explore the effect of system behavior of changes in some of the model’s parameters Below we focus on assessing the model’s performance and present the outputs for simple scenarios, mainly related to the transition of conventional to organic farms, and associated effects on GHG emissions over 32 iterations (years). To generate preliminary results, we defined fifty-two simple scenarios; Table 5 presents the first four simple scenarios. The other scenarios are generated based on modification of the first four. All the scenarios were run 15 times for 100 farm businesses (agents), and they are assigned to conventional and organic production randomly for a period of 32 years.

Table 5 - The first four simple scenarios, MktInf_Support =  Support for organic marketing infrastructure, Transadv_Service = Transition advisory services, InfExt_Service = Access to information extension services, and Trans_Subsidy = Subsidy for transition as a proportion of  gross revenue change during the transition period.